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Threat Assessment 2021/22 – What’s The Next SHTF Event?

In this post, I want to go over what I’m calling, “Threat Assessment 2021/22“. This is where we’ll look at the potential of new threats that may threaten our freedom and livelihood based on a few different factors.

I could go on about how the borderline tyrannical and fascist state itself is a threat to our freedom and such but I want to keep things as clear and practical as I can here.

Let’s focus on a threat assessment that would help a practical preparedness-minded person do what they need to do – prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

So I’ll take stats from the government’s own threat assessments, along with those of us in the world of preparation and self-reliance, and whittle that down to a work of art.

Fair enough? It’ll be just like magic, only real. Like predictions but with less certainty. Fun, happy thoughts.

Let’s move on…

Do We Really Need A Threat Assessment Right Now?

We’re going through the worst SHTF event that most of us have ever had to endure as a nation in our lifetimes. Do we really need to think about Threat Assessment 2021/22?

The economic and political implications of the pandemic will ripple through the world for years.

Office of the Director of National Intelligence

I’m glad you asked. That’s a very good question. Do you know what I’ve had in the back of my mind since this COVID tragedy began? No, I know where the toilet paper is. I’m well stocked so that’s not it.

No, I’ve been thinking,

Man, this would be the worst, therefore most opportune time to hit the United States.

Me- Brian D. Hawkins

Whether as a major terror attack or an attack from another sovereign nation, can you think of a more effective time to attack us than when we’re fighting with each other about race and masks and too afraid to go to work? I’m generalizing big time here and I won’t get political but you understand, right?

Terrorists remain interested in using chemical and biological agents in attacks against US interests and possibly the US homeland.

Office of the Director of National Intelligence

My mother always said, “Things can always get worse“. When I said something like, “Why not, things can’t get any worse“, I knew I was in for a lecture. Well, Mom was right. Thangs can get worse and usually does. Not happy thoughts, I know.

The economic fallout from the pandemic is likely to create or worsen instability in at least a few and perhaps many countries, as people grow more desperate in the face of interlocking pressures that include sustained economic downturns, job losses, and disrupted supply chains.

Office of the Director of National Intelligence

The why and the when. Both answered. Next…

Speaking Of Tyrannical And Fascist Rulers, What’s The U.S. Government’s Threat Assessment?

image - The U.S. Government’s Threat Assessment

Did you know the US Government does its own assessments of threats? It does, but their assessment is focused on threats to the State, in particular. Not our liberty, their power. Let’s start there anyway.

The United States intelligence agencies’ official (public) Worldwide Threat Assessment is made public in this .PDF document: Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community.

This annual report of worldwide threats to the national security of the United States is only twenty-seven pages (Including the cover sheet and index) and it’s an easy read.

If you decide to skip the details, I’ll try to quickly outline the major issues that the United States government deems a threat.

In the coming year, the United States and its allies will face a diverse array of threats that are playing out amidst the global disruption resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and against the backdrop of great power competition, the disruptive effects of ecological degradation and a changing climate, an increasing number of empowered non-state actors, and rapidly evolving technology.

  • Disease outbreaks
  • Food and water security
  • Political instability and humanitarian crises
  • Major narcotics trafficking
  • Emerging and disruptive technologies
  • ISIS, al-Qa’ida, Hizballah, and Iran (terrorist attacks)
  • Regional conflicts
  • The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) push for global power
  • Russian, Iranian, and North Korean provocative actions
  • COVID-19
  • climate change and environmental degradation
  • Cyber threats
  • Organized crime and potent illicit drugs
  • Global migration and displacement
  • Violent extremists who promote the superiority of the white race
  • Antigovernment or antiauthority extremists
  • Internal and interstate conflict and instability

Now, Real Life Threats For The Average Citizen

image - My Driveway Flooded

So as alphabet soup agencies evaluate the various threats of white supremacy, terrorist, nuclear, cyber hacking, and other threats to U.S. national security, how much of that stuff, as preparedness-minded citizens, should we be concerned about?

Unfortunately, much of it. As we’ve seen over the last few months, our government is woefully underprepared to handle just about any widespread event within its own borders.

I’m not just talking about COVID. What about the lack of a pandemic plan at all? The PPE? What about local government and local police leaving people to fend for themselves during dangerous protests, rioting, and violent events?

Or, (Trigger warning), some of the police can quickly become a threat as well. We’ve seen it time and time again, over the years, innocent people become victims to the very people charged to protect them.

Oh wait, I stand corrected…

The Supreme Court determined the police are not required to protect so the “To Protect And Serve” disappeared only to be replaced with resentment from all sides.

Or Biden overreaching presidential authorities and mandating a fast-tracked RNA (mRNA) therapy drug?

Yes, we need to be concerned but only enough to become as prepared as we can. After that, the concern is just a waste of energy and emotion.

Focus on results, not the social drama the sheeple have fallen for. Don’t feed the “Divide & Conquer” strategy being used against our freedom.

Understand ● Prepare ● Detect ● Identify ● Resolve

More Pandemic Lies, Distractions, and Deception

image - COVID-19 - All Masked Up

I’m not that person denying that the pandemic is real or even a threat. It’s serious and people have died. A lot of people. Not as many as is being reported but let’s table that discussion for later.

There’s no denying that we’re lied to on a daily basis, by everyone from big tech to traditional media to uncle sam.

At this point, anyone that can’t see it is highly unlikely to have enough brain cells left to read this much of the article. You can’t fix stupid so all I can say is apply a thick coating of healthy skepticism to everything you see and hear from any third party.

In other words, if you or your Mom didn’t personally see and understand a thing, consider the thing suspect until proven otherwise.

Some of the biggest lies we’ve been told recently are:

image - USDA Food Shortages Lie
USDA food shortages Q&A as of the time this article was first published – Sep 12, 2021.
  • The CDC is here to protect American citizens.
  • Masks work to keep a 0.3 micron virus out – but maybe wear two or three just in case. You can’t wear too many masks don’t you know?
  • Social/physical distancing works – But still wear a mask and avoid talking too loud or breathing too hard. In fact, just stay home. You ain’t working anyway.
  • The covid vaccine is a success – but still wear masks in case you’re contagious? WTH? And you’ll need booster shots for the forseeable future. Don’t worry, we’ll put it in the flu vaccine and mandate that as well. It’s for your own good.
  • We need to pay the unemplyed more money than they made working in order to help the economy.
  • We needed to spend trillions of stollen dollars in stimulus bills to keep the economy afloat. Trust us, we have the power to print money.
  • White supreamacy is a big threat to America. In 2021. I mean, aside from the white bigots on Capital Hill and Silicon Valley, that is.
  • There are currently no nationwide shortages of food.
  • Let’s not forget the15 days to flatten the curve. 🤣

We could go on all day but you get the idea. Like House said, “Everyone Lies“. Like my father used to say, “The government is everyone“. Okay, a little respect, please. Of course, the abrasive genius Dr. Gregory House was smarter. He’s was House.

The biggest threat we face from lies and deception is the loss of our liberty.

Soon to Be Famous Quote By Brian D. Hawkins

The biggest threat we face from lies and deception is the loss of our liberty. That’s not some flippant remark based on hearsay, that’s the truth.

Look at how many people have been shunned, silenced, and disappeared from mega social media websites because they have different opinions than the site’s agenda.

The only solution here is, again, don’t trust and verify (Reagan was only dealing with the Soviets, he wasn’t facing this mess) and to support those that dare to stand up to the tyranny.

Food Shortages And Supply Chain Disruptions

image - My canning

Now’s not the time to get into the debate whether food shortages are real or not, we need to be prepared for whatever is thrown our way. That might be more empty shelves or prices going through the roof. In all likelihood, it’ll be both.

Inventory your preps and plug any holes. If you’re new to prepping. Congratulations. Pat yourself on the back and get started. Now.

Economic Crisis – Threat Assessment

image - Threat Assessment -Pocket Cash

Between May 2020 and May 2021, prices of commodities tracked within the Producer Price Index rose by 19 percent, the largest year-over-year increase since 1974.

The White House – Why the Pandemic Has Disrupted Supply Chains

Well, common sense dictates that we cannot spend trillions of dollars we didn’t have, encourage people – no, PAY people not to work, and force businesses to shut down because of a virus that has a survival rate higher than 98.2% is running loose without paying the piper.

This is going to bite us in the butt and it’s going to hurt bad.

On average, 98.2% of known COVID-19 patients in the U.S. survive. Because the true number of infections is much larger than just the documented cases, the actual survival rate of all COVID-19 infections is even higher than 98.2%.

AP News – Survival rates for COVID-19 misrepresented in posts – July 23, 2021

Action Steps:

Deleolpe an Action Plan – That includes a threat assessment, personal situation evaluation, prioritizing risks, and more. It’s all covered here: Building YOUR Realistic Preparedness Action Plan

Keep cash – On your person and where you have immediate access in case the banks get into another “Too Big To Fail – NOT” situation.

How much cash? That’s something only you can answer.

What about gold, silver, and crypto? Yes, yes, and yes. I want all of that. Right now, this very moment in time, what buys you a dozen eggs and a loaf of bread? Cash!

Get it when you can – We know ammo, canning supplies, and a hundred other things are sporadic at best when it comes to inventory and availability. We know meat, canned goods and everything else we can shove into a cart costs more.

So my advice is to get it when you can. If you have the space in the freezer or can pressure can meat and you find chicken on sale at 89¢/lb., buy it. Yes, buy it if you can afford it without using credit and you know you’re using it in the next six months. Chances are, you’ll be saving money at the very least.

Try harder – We’re in a time right now where it might take more than a quick stop to our local grocery store. We might need to drive a little further or find it online.

Story Time

Without mentioning any names, someone close to me needed quart canning jars. They couldn’t find any and knew I was canning up hundreds of jars for our pantry. Their solution? Yep, they asked for some of mine.

Within ten minutes I found five cases less than ten miles away.

We can talk to people and ask around. If you can crowdsource your mission to find canned shrimp so you can make your spouse her favorite coconut shrimp for your anniversary, you can post your need for bottled water or canning lids.

Anti-Gun Advocates

image - My Wife At The Gun Range
My wife at the gun range.

The anti-gun crowd uses ammunition (Pun intended) supplied by the few sick psychos, a handful of bad cops, the stupidity of the left, and the complacency of the sheeple to rape America of its Second Amendment.

Action Steps – Pray hard, arm yourself, refuse to live where the Constitution is crapped on, keep your head down, and hold your ground.

The solution is not to lose your freedom by going off half-cocked and doing stupid stuff.

Anti-Anything Extremists

image - My Hiking Camp

We see that the government wants us to be concerned with the globalization of white supremacy. Personally, I trust that concern about as much as I trust the government’s handle on the pandemic or on protecting our economy.

The truth is, extremists, are whomever the ruling operators determine are anti-status-quo while gaining traction and threatening their hold on power.

No one is more extremist than the self-righteous and narcissistic authoritarians that form our three branches of thieves and liars.

Oh, snap, I forgot to deploy the trigger alert. 🤭

With all of that genius stuff said, we do need to prepare for the extremist activities, whether on the government payroll or not. Political unrest, justified or not, is a concern.

Action Steps – Keep your head on a swivel and practice situational awareness at all times. See something amiss – find somewhere else to be. Do not engage in the system’s plans.

Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.

John Adams

My Threat Assessment Conclusion

image - My Threat Assessment Conclusion -Survival Gear

First, I’m just me and I’m a professional at only being me. In other words, do your own due diligence and fact-checking.

My conclusion… More of the same. This thing ain’t finished. The idiots in charge aren’t getting smarter. And while our prepper ranks are growing, the masses are still motivated by headlines and buy into the rhetoric.

If the news says bleach is running low, they’ll go empty the shelves without a moment’s thought that they should already be prepared.

Honestly, with all of the chaos going on, you’re most likely SHTF event will likely be something in the order of a car accident, job loss, medical emergency, local natural disaster, or something along those lines.

Maybe your roof starts leaking, you are hospitalized for three days, you have to replace TWO cars, you don’t get a paycheck for over a month, your furnace goes out, or your central air needs replaced. ALL of that has happened to us in the last two years. True story.

And we do not go without.

Keep calm, stay vigilant, watch your surroundings, and prep your butt off. That includes everything from water to veggies. Meat to cash (Don’t wait until there’s a run on the bank to realize to need money). Stock food, water, meds, PPE, and supplies. Don’t go off the deep end, stay focused.

Don’t count on the same shortages we seen last year but don’t ignore them either.

Evaluate your personal situation and take the appropriate preparedness steps.

Start Here: Building YOUR Realistic Preparedness Action Plan.

Or it might be something entirely different. Little aliens might land on your roof and have an excess of body probes. Be prepared for anything or learn to like the results. Just saying ~

Call To Action / Next Step

Next Step: Building YOUR Realistic Preparedness Action Plan.

Stay safe. Stay prepared.
Hawkins Out.

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Brian Hawkins

Father, grandfather, Veteran, animal lover, law-abiding taxpayer, homeowner, trucker, and a United States Citizen. Oh, and I'm also a prepper, survivalist, responsible gun owner, and hiker.

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